From November 21st to 23rd, the 6th China (Qingdao) Lithium Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum was held at the Xingguang Island International Conference Center in the West Coast New District of Qingdao. Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of the Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, said at the forum that under the upsurge of new energy technology and market development, new products, new technologies, new business formats, and new models are blooming, and a new era of energy revolution has begun.

In 2018, with the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the new energy industry has entered the post-subsidy era, and the dual-point policy has taken over. The capital winter is spreading to the new energy manufacturing industry. Enterprises in the industrial chain are facing unprecedented pressure in terms of capital, technology, and market. The entire industry The deep reshuffle has begun, and more and more people will be eliminated.

“Countries such as Europe, the United States, and Japan regard the phenomenon of capacity utilization rate being lower than 78% for a long time as overcapacity in the industry. The overall capacity utilization rate of power lithium batteries has been lower than 78% for many consecutive years, which means that there is serious overcapacity from the perspective of the industry as a whole. " said Liang Rui, vice president of Sunwanda Group and president of the power battery sector.

He also mentioned that the current market share of the TOP10 companies has further increased, industry concentration has increased, and the market demand for domestic high-end production capacity has continued to increase; and other power battery companies other than the TOP10 companies have a total market demand of about 13%. However, it accounts for about 55% of the industry's total production capacity, and most of the production capacity is low-end production capacity. Its capacity utilization rate is only about 10%, which lowers the industry's capacity utilization index.

Liang Rui reminded that under the "double attack" of rising raw material prices in the upstream and price reductions in the downstream, power battery companies will have no choice but to be eliminated if they do not have a cost competitive advantage. Power battery companies must develop their "internal skills", promote product technology upgrades, and seize high-end market share.

In a new round of industry reshuffle and in-depth competition, localization and scale are accelerating. More and more domestic new energy battery industry chain companies have launched global strategic layouts. The proportion of exports has increased, exchange gains and losses have increased, and domestic and overseas customers and The market development effect is remarkable, and it has entered the supply chain of multinational giants.

"The production capacity and creativity of our Chinese enterprises should never be underestimated. Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China has already become a veritable manufacturing power." Yu Qingjiao believes that now, our country is moving from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing power". Upgrading from an "automotive power" to an "automotive power", demonstrating the "China's power" of new energy to the world. This is the best development opportunity for new energy vehicles and battery industry chains.

my country is currently the world's largest lithium battery production and sales market, accounting for more than 40% of global lithium resource consumption. The supply of lithium carbonate is tight; cobalt prices continue to surge due to rising demand and the impact of the international situation, quadrupling in the past two years. Last year alone, the increase was over 130%.

Although the prices of cobalt and lithium resources have declined since 2018, under the expectation of huge medium and long-term demand in the new energy vehicles and energy storage fields, from cathode material companies to car companies and battery companies, the game of mineral resources is still non-stop upgradin.

At the same time, industry experts predict that new energy vehicle power batteries will enter the stage of large-scale decommissioning after 2018. It is expected that the total production will exceed 200,000 tons (24.6GWh) by 2020. If 70% can be used for echelon utilization, there will be a total of approximately 6 Tens of thousands of tons of batteries need to be scrapped.

Therefore, many companies have turned their attention to "urban mines" and sought investment opportunities in waste battery recycling and battery material remanufacturing.

In addition, a new era in which China dominates the use of new energy sources in automobiles has begun.

Mo Ke, founder of True Lithium Research, said that the changes in global economic and trade patterns and the increasingly fierce and cruel competition between major powers may push the Chinese government to increase the development of strategic emerging industries such as electric vehicles and do its best to reduce the impact on traditional Dependence on energy and oil will also force many companies and capital to turn to the development of strategic emerging industries.

Moko predicts that the global lithium battery market will reach 450GWh in 2021, three times the 150GWh in 2017. The average annual growth rate will continue to remain above 30%, and it will definitely surpass lead-acid batteries and become the largest secondary battery product.

He also said that the lithium battery market size will reach 227GWh in 2021, and the global share will still remain above 50%. If the two major goals set by the Chinese government for 2020 (battery system energy density 260Wh/kg and price within 1 yuan/Wh) can be successfully achieved and the number of safety accidents is controlled within a reasonable range, China's electric vehicle market will usher in a better future. The rapid development period will be more beneficial to the growth of the lithium battery market. “The challenges are still there and the future is promising!”

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